We reside in an unsure and complicated world, but we regularly have to make selections within the current with unsure future outcomes. Certainly, we must be on the look-out for “black swans” – low-probability high-impact occasions.
To research, or not to research? To make investments, or not to make investments? To marry, or not to marry?
Whereas uncertainty makes decision-making tough, it does at the very least make life thrilling! If all the future was identified upfront, there would by no means be a component of shock. Whether or not a superb future or a nasty future, it might be a identified future.
On this course we think about many helpful instruments to cope with uncertainty and assist us to make knowledgeable (and therefore higher) selections – important expertise for a lifetime of fine decision-making.
Key matters embrace quantifying uncertainty with likelihood, descriptive statistics, level and interval estimation of means and proportions, the fundamentals of speculation testing, and a choice of multivariate functions of key phrases and ideas seen all through the course.